Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-12-23 Origin: Site
In 2017, the first half of the ventilation industry ended on a high note. Dealers’ enthusiasm for stocking up, market agencies’ eye-catching data, and media reports all confirmed the popularity of the air-conditioning market.In the relatively dull major appliance market, air conditioners became the biggest bright spot in the first half of the year.
Although there have been frequent rainfalls recently, the high temperature weather after the heavy rain seems to continue the hot market of air conditioning market.However, some industry insiders predict that the situation in the air-conditioning market may reverse in the second half of the year, and the rapid growth momentum may be unsustainable.
In the first half of the year, e-commerce has been the 'engine' for growth. Compared with the first half of 2016, the performance of the air-conditioning market this year is a bit unexpected.Throughout the first half of the year, the domestic air conditioner sales market has maintained rapid growth and has become a highlight of the entire home appliance market.According to total data from Zhongyikang, from January to May 2017, the retail volume and retail sales of my country's air-conditioning market reached 23.99 million units and 84 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% and 38.8% respectively.
Especially in the past three months, the domestic air conditioner sales market has shown explosive growth.According to industry online monitoring data, in May 2017, my country produced 14.937 million household air conditioners, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, and sold 15.503 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, of which 8.7941 million units were shipped domestically, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%.
Fan Yang, a home appliance industry analyst at Guotai Junan Research Institute, believes that the lagging impact of the real estate upward cycle in 2016; the weather in some areas has become hotter in advance, and the peak sales season has arrived earlier than expected, resulting in terminal demand in May exceeding expectations.
Based on the current market conditions, some institutions are optimistic about the ventilation market in the near future.Fan Yang believes that based on the current shipment situation of air conditioners, terminal demand, and channel inventory, it is expected that the fundamentals of ventilation home appliances will continue to exceed expectations in the short term.
It is difficult to predict the situation in the second half of the year. High growth may be difficult to sustain.
As an industry that 'depends on the weather', the impact of weather on air-conditioning market sales is self-evident.At the end of last month, more than a dozen provinces in the south experienced heavy rainfall. Last week, the heavy rainfall area moved north to the Sichuan Basin, Huanghuai, and northern Jianghuai areas, and the rainfall in the south gradually subsided.
The editor believes that as the rainfall in the south weakens, the high-temperature weather will counterattack, and the air-conditioning market will also see a rise. Overall, the recent heavy rainfall in the south will have little impact on the market.
On July 12, the country began to enter the 'dog days' of 'high temperature, high humidity, and high heat.' Most areas across the country gradually transitioned into 'high baking mode,' and the dog days will last until late August.
According to information released by the Central Broadcasting Network, meteorological monitoring showed that on July 10, the daily maximum temperature in 31 counties and cities in Xinjiang, Ningxia, Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan and other places exceeded the historical extreme value, among which the maximum temperature in Turpan, Xinjiang reached 49 ℃, hitting a record high.The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that in the next few days, high temperatures will continue to spread in the north. At the same time, as the rain subsides, many places in the south will also join the ranks of high temperatures.
Zuo Yanque believes that hot weather will drive sales of fans and air conditioners, and the market is expected to see a wave of rising prices in the third quarter.However, at the Fourth Standing Council of the Sixth China Household Electrical Appliances Association held last week, Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Minsheng Securities, pointed out when analyzing the macroeconomic situation that in the second half of 2017, many industries, including the home appliance industry, are still Face greater pressure.
Suo Xiaofang, director of the Home Appliances Division of Industry Online, believes that there is no need to worry too much about the development and trend of the entire industry before October, but the situation in November and December is difficult to predict. The predicted turning point will appear in the last month of 2017—— In December, companies can be optimistic strategically, but they still need to be cautious tactically.
It is expected that after the end of this year's peak sales season, the industry's inventory will definitely not be small. Once the inventory becomes high again, it is inevitable that some companies will use price means to digest the inventory.Therefore, air-conditioning companies must seize the good opportunity to ship in the middle and late peak season, accelerate market sales, try to empty inventory, try to recover cash, and at the same time plan and layout for the cold year of 2018.This is the key.
